Particularly in the past two decades, with global warming and heightened human activities, runoff has decreased significantly, which may lead to greater conflict between water supply and demand.
Water shortage is considered the future sustainable development bottleneck of the YRB [6, 7].
Although the Reg CM3 had validated model performance for the baseline period, there is certain systematic bias remaining in the YRB due to the Reg CM3 model skill itself and the bias inherited from the driving GCM .
Compared with observations, the simulated mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation are 1.0°C lower and 216.2 mm higher, respectively.
The Reg CM3 model does relatively well simulate the climate of East Asia and China and does especially well in the simulation of monsoon rainfall [17, 18].
The Reg CM3 outputs for the baseline period (1971–2000) and a future period (2001–2030) with greenhouse gas forcing from the IPCC A2 scenario used in this study were provided by National Climate Center of China.
Thus, the analysis of climate change impacts on runoff is of great importance for the utilization and management of water resources in the YRB.
The global climate model (GCM) is one of the best tools available for assessing future climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
These changes in the hydrological cycle may result in further impacts on the water resource management and socioeconomic systems [4, 5].
The Yellow River basin (YRB) is located in semiarid to arid climate zones and is an important water resource supply in North China.